The risk-management ideas behind a Markov signal
Last reviewed: 25 May 2026
Why this article exists
Markov is a research product, not personal investment advice. We don't size your positions, place your orders or manage your portfolio. That said, every signal we publish is built around a set of well-established risk-management ideas, and understanding them helps you read the research more accurately.
The structural stop on every signal
Every signal carries a single, hard, structural stop level. "Structural" means it sits at a price that — if breached — invalidates the underlying setup, not at an arbitrary percentage distance from entry. Stops are typically anchored to:
- A recent swing low (for long setups) or swing high (for shorts).
- A multiple of the recent volatility range (Average True Range).
- A key indicator level — a moving average reclaim, a Bollinger Band midline, a volume-weighted average price.
Treat the published stop as the level at which the setup, as published, is no longer working. Where you choose to place the order on your broker is a personal decision shaped by your own slippage tolerance and gap-risk preference.
Why a "non-negotiable" stop matters
A meaningful share of any rule-based research portfolio's individual recommendations lose money. That's normal — methodologies profit by having asymmetric outcomes (winners larger than losers in expectation), not by being right most of the time. A discipline of taking the methodology's signalled exits cleanly is what turns that asymmetry into realised return over time.
Position sizing — the principle
The standard idea is to risk a small, fixed fraction of capital per trade — typically 1–2%. Risk per share = entry minus stop. Position size (in shares) = (capital × risk fraction) / risk per share.
That formula is the discipline behind why a wider stop calls for a smaller position, and vice versa. We don't run that calculation for you — your capital, your appetite, your call — but the signals are published with the inputs you'd need to do it.
The "wrong is normal" idea
Internally we frame it like this: the goal isn't to be right; the goal is to have the math work. A win rate of 40–45% on a strategy with an average win 2.5x the size of the average loss is profitable in expectation. A win rate of 70% on a strategy where one bad loss wipes out three winners isn't.
Important caveat
The above describes principles, not personal financial advice. For advice tailored to your specific situation, please consult a SEBI Registered Investment Adviser. Our research is intentionally not personalised.
Related in signals & methodology
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- Why Markov doesn't publish options signalsWhy the production stack is built around cash equities and what it would take for options to enter the feed in the future.
- Factor strategies, explained for non-quantsA from-first-principles walkthrough of the six production factor strategies in the Markov feed.
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